Trende: A Republican Senate takeover isn’t just a hypothetical anymore « The Greenroom: "My analysis at Townhall broadly mirrors Trende’s. The GOP’s best shot at displacing Harry Reid as majority leader comes through sweeping the open seats in states carried heavily by Romney (MT, WV, SD) and beating three of the four vulnerable red state Democrats mentioned above. Trende cautiously pegs Republicans’ chances of doing so at 30 percent, which feels about right to me at this stage. Two important qualifiers: (1) It’s very early and the national mood could shift considerably one way or the other over the next 15 months. (2) Republicans have managed to choke away a race or two (or three!) over each the last few cycles. For those reasons, I’d still place the over/under for seats gained at four. Though I might pick the over — five really appears to be eminently doable — that all-important sixth victory could end up proving elusive."
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