How Strong Will the Anti-Democratic Backlash Be? - NYTimes.com: "Why isn’t the Republican Party paying a heavy price for its dependence on a shrinking white electorate, its rejection of immigration reform and its “just say no” legislative strategy?
According to a number of analysts, including Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, Republicans are slightly favored this year to retake the Senate and to increase their majority in the House.
Most explanations involve likely turnout patterns – the pro-Republican tilt of the whiter, older and more affluent electorate in nonpresidential election years. Another key factor is Obama’s current 52.6 percent disapproval rating."
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